2001 Ron Paul 18:1
The golden new Era of the 1990s has been
welcomed and praised by many observers. But Im afraid a different type
of new era is arriving-a dangerous one- heralding the end of 30 years
of fiat money. If so, its a serious matter that deserves close
attention by Congress.
2001 Ron Paul 18:2
Theres nothing to fear from globalism,
free trade and a single worldwide currency. But a globalism where free
trade is competitively subsidized by each nation, a continuous trade
war is dictated by the WTO, and the single currency is pure fiat, fear
is justified. That type of globalism is destined to collapse into
economic despair, inflationism and protectionism, and managed by
resurgent militant nationalism.
2001 Ron Paul 18:3
Efforts to achieve peaceful globalist
goals are quickly abandoned when the standard of living drops,
unemployment rises, stock markets crash and artificially high wages are
challenged by market forces. When tight budgets threaten spending cuts,
cries for expanding the welfare state drown out any expression of
concern for rising deficits.
2001 Ron Paul 18:4
The effort in recent decades to unify
government surveillance over all world trade and international
financial transactions through the UN, IMF, World Bank, WTO, ICC, the
OECD, and the Bank of International Settlements can never substitute
for a peaceful world based on true free trade, freedom of movement, a
single but sound market currency, and voluntary contracts with private
property rights.
2001 Ron Paul 18:5
Great emphasis in the last six years
has been placed on so-called productivity increases that gave us the
new-era economy. Its defenders proclaimed that a new paradigm had
arrived. Though productivity increases have surely helped our economy,
many astute observers have challenged the extent to which improvements
in productivity have actually given us a distinctly unique new era. A
case can be made that the great surge in new technology of the 1920s
far surpassed the current age of fast computers, and we all know what
happened in after 1929.
2001 Ron Paul 18:6
A truly new era may well be upon
us-but one quite different than what is generally accepted today.
2001 Ron Paul 18:7
The biggest error in interpreting
todays events is totally ignoring how monetary policy in a fiat system affects
the entire economy.
2001 Ron Paul 18:8
Politicians and economists are very
familiar with business cycles with most assuming that slumps erupt as:
1.) A natural consequence of capitalism, 2.) An act of God, 3.) Or as a
result of Fed driven high interest rates. That is to say, the Fed did
not engage in enough monetary debasement, becomes the most common
complaint by Wall Street pundits and politicians.
2001 Ron Paul 18:9
But todays economy is unlike
anything the world has ever known. The world economy is more integrated than
ever before. Indeed, the effort by international agencies to expand
world trade has had results- some good. Labor costs have been held in
check, industrial producers have moved to less regulated, low cost, and
low tax countries while world mobility has aided these trends with all
being helped with advances in computer technology.
2001 Ron Paul 18:10
But the artificial nature of todays
world trade and finance being systematically managed by the IMF, the
World Bank and WTO, and driven by a worldwide fiat monetary system, has
produced imbalances that have already prompted many sudden adjustments.
There have been eight major crisis in the past six years requiring a
worldwide effort, led by the Fed, to keep the system afloat, all being
done with more monetary inflation and bailouts.
2001 Ron Paul 18:11
The lynch pin to the outstanding
growth of the 1990s has been the US dollar. Although it too is totally fiat,
its special status has permitted a bigger bonus to the United States
while it has been used to prop up other world economies. The gift
bequeathed to us by owning the world reserve currency, allows us to
create dollars at will- and Alan Greenspan has not hesitated to
accommodate everyone despite his reputation as an inflation fighter.
This has dramatically raised our standard of living, and significantly
contributed to the new era psychology that has been welcomed by so many
naive enough to believe that perpetual prosperity had arrived and the
bills would never have to be paid.
2001 Ron Paul 18:12
One day it will become known that
technological advances and improvements in productivity also have a
downside. This technology hid the ill effects of the monetary mischief
the Fed had enthusiastically engaged in over the past decade.
Technological improvements, while keeping the CPI and the PPI prices in
check, led many, including Greenspan, to victoriously declare that no
inflation existed and that a new era had indeed arrived. Finally, its
declared that the day has arrived that printing money is equivalent to
producing wealth and without a downside. Counterfeiting works!
2001 Ron Paul 18:13
But the excess credit created by the
Fed found its way into the stock market- especially the NASDAQ, and was
ignored. This set the stage for the stock market collapse, now ongoing.
Likewise ignored has been the excess capacity, mal-investment, and debt
that permeates the world economy.
2001 Ron Paul 18:14
Could we indeed be facing a truly New
Era, but one unanticipated by all the authorities and one much more
dangerous?
2001 Ron Paul 18:15
The collapse of the Soviet system and
the emergence of United States military and economic preeminence,
throughout the world, have permitted the dollar-driven financial bubble
to last longer than anticipated. But instead of a glorious New Era, as
promised, we ended up with a huge financial bubble and an artificially
integrated world economy dominated by an unstable dollar. But instead
of a single commodity currency driving a healthy world economy, we have
an economy that has numerous imbalances generated by the US dollar,
unsustainable trade agreements and total instability in the currency
markets.
2001 Ron Paul 18:16
Sure we have enjoyed cheap imports
and they have raised our standard of living and our foreign debt. We have
on the short run benefited from our trade and current account deficits
since the world has been only too eager to gobble up our inflated
dollars and loan them back to us. But soon the countries of the world
will decide that enough is enough and they will recognize the bad deal
it is for them to continue to accept our dollars. The mal-investment,
already becoming apparent, will prompt even more radical adjustments in
all markets.
2001 Ron Paul 18:17
There are many countries only too
anxious to get back at the United States for our military and economic
aggressiveness, and some unknown economic or military event will one
day knock us off our pedestal and a dangerous New Era will be upon us,
instead of the golden one dreamed about.
2001 Ron Paul 18:18
For thirty years the world has
operated on a pure fiat monetary system and all the ill effects of such a system
are now becoming apparent. Current adjustments will be different than
all other previous currency adjustments, which were local or regional.
This one is worldwide and may well be the biggest economic event in
modern history.
2001 Ron Paul 18:19
Its reasonable to assume a worldwide
slump will ensue as a result of the worldwide monetary mischief our
authorities have engaged in the past 30 years. Never before has the
world gone so long without money having some tangible value attached to
it. Trust in politicians and Central Bankers may have been a benefit in
the inflationary part of the cycle but this trust will quickly
dissipate in the corrected phase. Monetary heroes can quickly become
villains as the price is paid for previous excesses and extravagance.
2001 Ron Paul 18:20
However, hope springs eternal, so no
effort will soon be made to restore sound money. A giant worldwide
slump will merely prompt massive monetary inflation and deficit
financing. The Congress and the American people should anticipate this
will happen even though it should not.
2001 Ron Paul 18:21
Conditions today could easily lead to
rampant price inflation as the dollar depreciates. Trade chaos, already
apparent, considering the number of complaints pending before the WTO,
will surely worsen, leading to a greater cry for protectionism and
militant nationalism which will then jeopardize international trade
even more.
2001 Ron Paul 18:22
The ultimate solution will only come
with the rejection of fiat money worldwide, and a restoration of commodity
money. Commodity money if voluntarily and universally accepted could
give us a single world currency requiring no money managers, no
manipulators orchestrating a man-made business cycle with rampant price
inflation. Real free trade without barriers or tariffs and a single
sound currency is the best way to achieve international peace and
prosperity.
2001 Ron Paul 18:23
When that day comes we will have a
true New Era, unlike the fictitious New Era of Greenspans dreams and
certainly opposite of the dangerous New Era that stares us in the face
as the world fiat monetary system falters.
This chapter appeared in Ron Pauls Congressional website at http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2001/cr031301.htm