Ron Paul's Texas Straight Talk - A weekly Column

April 29, 2002

Predictions for an Unwritten Future

The months since September 11th have been unsettling for our nation. The twin specters of war and economic recession weigh heavily on the national consciousness. The Middle East conflict intensifies, with no peaceful end in sight. Government intervention- in the economy, in the private affairs of citizens, and in the internal affairs of foreign nations- has accelerated. Federal spending is growing wildly, and annual deficits will be larger than expected in the coming years. Despite any rhetoric otherwise, tax cuts are off the table in this new era of war funding and unchallenged government growth. As one prominent Washington Democrat put it, "The era of limited government is over."

This rapid growth in the size and power of the federal government will have very serious consequences for America if the trend is not reversed. Freedom and prosperity cannot coexist with socialism and endless war. Yet socialism and endless war are exactly what most in Washington are promoting.

If we continue on our current path, I predict the following consequences for our republic:

Peace, of sorts, will come to the Middle East but will be short-lived. There will be big promises of more U.S. money and weapons for Israel and those Arab countries allied with the United States. American troops, of course, will be used to monitor the "peace."

U.S. taxpayers will pay to rebuild Palestine- both the West Bank and Gaza- as well as Afghanistan. U.S. taxpayers paid to bomb these areas, so we will be expected to rebuild them.

The Karzai government will fail, and the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan eventually will end.

In time, an oil boycott will be imposed- with oil prices soaring to historic highs.

Current Israeli-American policies will harden the resolve of Arab/Muslim nations in their efforts to avenge the humiliation of the Palestinians. Muslim nations that in the past fought against each will become allies, at least temporarily. Some of our moderate Arab allies will be overthrown by Islamic fundamentalists.

Some European countries will provide clandestine support for the Muslim countries and their anti-Israel pursuits.

The United States- with Tony Blair as head cheerleader- will attack Iraq without proper congressional authority; and a major war, the largest since World War II, will result.

Political leaders and high-ranking military officials from Middle Eastern nations will be hauled into and tried before the International Criminal Court for war crimes. The Arab world, along with some European leaders, will call for the prosecution of Ariel Sharon by the ICC. American military and political leaders will not be tried by the ICC, although many of our enemies in the U.N. will advocate such prosecutions. The vicious debate will set the stage for wider politically-motivated revenge prosecutions of western leaders by the ICC in the future.

China- ironically assisted by American aid- will align herself with the Arab nations and openly sell them weapons.

China, India, Russia, and Pakistan will take advantage of the chaos for the purpose of grabbing land, resources, and strategic advantages they have sought for years in central Asia.


An international dollar crisis will dramatically boost interest rates in the United States.

Price inflation and a major economic downturn will decimate the U.S. Treasury.

Inflationary Federal Reserve policies will accelerate, with massive credit creation worsening the dollar crisis. Gold will be seen as an alternative to paper money as it returns to its historic monetary role.

Erosion of civil liberties will continue as our government responds to fears of terrorist acts by making generous use of unconstitutional powers obtained through the Patriot Act.

The draft will be reinstated, causing domestic turmoil and resentment.

Congress and the President will shift radically toward expanding the size and scope of the federal government. This will satisfy both the liberals and conservatives. Military and police powers will grow, satisfying conservatives. The welfare state, both domestic and international, will expand, satisfying the liberals. Both sides will endorse military adventurism overseas.

This is the most important of my predictions: policy changes could prevent all of the previous predictions from happening. I hope and pray that Congress will prove me wrong and work to save our republic. The actions Congress takes now will determine whether America can return to an era of peace and prosperity in the foreseeable future.